Toronto Condo Market in September: Another Lower Month and What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

Toronto Condos in September: Another Month Lower, and What It Means for Buyers and Sellers

If you were hoping the Toronto condo market would turn a corner this fall, September's numbers say not yet.

The latest TRREB data shows condo sales down again. Sales fell 5.5% in the city centre and 12.4% across the 905. Average prices fell with them, down 6.1% in the 416 and 12% in the 905. The average GTA condo now sits at $605,257, which is 24.3% below where it was in February 2022, right before rates started climbing and the market began to cool.

Rates aren't coming to the rescue

Buyers waiting for borrowing costs to ease may be waiting a while. Fixed rates have edged up in recent weeks as bond markets worry about inflation. Talk of Bank of Canada rate hikes has also picked up, which would push variable rates higher.

The small-unit problem

Mortgage broker Ron Butler didn't hold back at MortgageFest Canada, saying units under 500 square feet are not just dead, they're buried. Many of these were bought as rental investments when demand was booming. Higher rates and softer rents have turned a lot of them into cash-flow headaches for their owners. Buyers who locked in prices years ago are also running into appraisals that come in well under what they agreed to pay.

Some buyers are circling, but a recovery is far off

CMHC's deputy chief economist, Aled ab Iorwerth, says he's hearing of people, and even some corporations, quietly picking at the market. Still, he describes this as a bottoming process and doesn't expect us to be through it until around 2028, assuming the economy recovers. TD Economics has also trimmed its 2026 national home sales forecast, pointing to a weaker economy and rate uncertainty.

The longer-term risk

Condo construction in Toronto has nearly stopped. That helps explain why prices are falling today, but it creates a problem later. If demand bounces back in a few years, there won't be much new supply coming to meet it. CMHC has flagged exactly this concern for the next three to four years. Some larger investors are already buying in bulk at steep discounts and planning to hold for years. Butler suggests they could be waiting four to seven years before those purchases pay off.

My takeaway

This is a market where the details matter more than ever. Unit size, building, carrying costs and your time horizon will make a big difference. If you're buying, you have real negotiating power. If you own and need to sell, it pays to get realistic pricing advice early as this is critical to a successful sale. If you're not sure where you stand, reach out and we can run the numbers together.
Joseph Bitton, B.A., LL.B., is a broker with Real Broker Ontario Ltd., and has his law degree. Joseph has been selling real estate in the greater Toronto area for over 35 years. 

Source: TRREB data as reported by Canadian Mortgage Professional (Oct. 6, 2026).